Jon recently spent a year at ETH Zürich where he developed a research agenda to study comeback dynamics in soccer. What conditions lead to comebacks, and what can teams do to prevent or provoke them? In an increasingly optimized sports world, we need to understand (and protect!) those magical moments.
As a pilot project, Jon investigated the legend that a two-goal lead is the most dangerous in soccer. Believe it not, there is some truth to that old saying. Teams with two-goal leads are about 4% more likely to surrender the next goal than if their lead was just one.